Inside Elections Downgrades McClintock's Chances
in CA-04 Race

National political forecasters now universally agree McClintock in trouble amid surging Morse campaign


Thursday, May 17th, 2018
Makaiah Mohler, (530) 913-3242,
Anthony Kusich, (916) 288-2228,

ROSEVILLE, Calif. – Inside Elections, the political tipsheet run by nationally-recognized elections analyst Nathan Gonzales, has moved the race in Californian's 4th Congressional District out of the "Safe Republican" category into the "Likely Republican" category, joining the Cook Political Report and UVA's Crystal Ball in the ratings change. Each of the 'Big Three' national political forecasters has now put the race on the competitive watchlist, indicating that a difficult campaign lies ahead for incumbent Rep. Tom McClintock. 

In downshifting McClintock's chances in the race, Gonzales wrote that "Republicans are concerned it could develop into a headache," and noted that McClintock had just "$676,000 in the bank," less than Morse's total.

CNN also moved the race into the more competitive "Likely Republican" category in April, citing Morse's strong fundraising and Trump's weaker vote share compared to previous Republicans. Morse's campaign continues to surge, as she recently received the backing of the powerful California Teacher's Association, as well as the official endorsement of the California Democratic Party with 65% of the delegates' votes. Late last year, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) added the race to its list of battlefield targets.